Seeing a lot of people ask the question of whether or not they should complete the Cool Cats 3 challenge. I will breakdown the costs of the challenge, my thoughts on what the Nikola Jokic moment may be worth and what I expect the challenge moments to be worth after the challenge is completed. Also sharing a few nuggets based off what I think will transpire in the future.
How much will I have to spend on all the moments to complete the challenge?
So at the time of writing this I pulled current pricing on all the moments needed for the Cool Cats 3 challenge as well as what my opinion is on the worth of these moments after the challenge is concluded.
As you can see from the chart data above, as of right now if you bought all the moments at their low ask from the marketplace you would roughly need to spend $570 to obtain all the moments and complete the challenge.
What is the maximum number of people that can complete this challenge?
This is an important question to ask yourself because the less number of people that complete the challenge, the lower number of serials that will be printed which makes the moment more rare and more valuable. To figure this out, we first need to identify what is the highest serial number on a given moment for the challenge? The answer to that is 15,000. This is the max serial number for any of the Cool Cats 3 moments. So if every single person completed the Cool Cats 3 challenge the maximum Jokic moments that could be minted would be 15,000.
However, we know that not every single person will complete the challenge, so now we have to look at past data from previous challenges and try to get an idea of how many people actually will complete it:
Cool Cats 1 Challenge Reward: Luka Doncic - 3,464 completed / 5,000 Max
Cool Cats 2 Challenge Reward: Anthony Davis - 7,098 completed / 10,000 Max
So if we look at the data from the last two challenges we see about 69% of people completed the Cool Cats 1 challenge and about 71% of people completed the Cool Cats 2 challenge. If we average the 2 together we get about a 70% completion rate. So now we can apply that to the Cool Cats 3 challenge, if we think 70% of people will complete the challenge that will give us about 11,500 minted moments for Jokic.
We have one caveat to the above information though. Those challenges cost $2,000+ to complete, this challenge is only about $500. This makes the barrier to entry much easier and I believe that will draw in at least an additional 10% of users. So let’s check the math if 80% of people completed the Cool Cats 3 challenge. That will give us about 12,000 minted moments for Jokic. I believe this to be a close representation as to how many people will complete the Cool Cats 3 challenge.
What is a good estimation for how much the Jokic moment will be worth?
This one can get a little tricky for a couple reasons, one of those is Jokic does already have quite a few moments on Top Shot. The other reason is he is in the running for league MVP this year which could increase the value of his moments later in the NBA season. First thing we can do is use some of the data from our previous questions we answered in this post.
First, we need to know how much will it cost to complete the challenge? Roughly $570
Second, we need to know how many Jokic moments will be minted? Guessing about 12,000
So now that we know the cost and the number of moments minted, we can go to the marketplace and start looking at current Jokic moments to get a better idea of what this one might sell for. There are mainly 3 moments we want to focus on to get our educated guess on this upcoming moments value:
Nikola Jokic - Dunk - Base Set (Series 2) - 15,000 Minted
Nikola Jokic - Assist - Seeing Stars (Series 2) - 10,000 Minted
Nikola Jokic - Assist - Base Set (Series 2) - $35,000+ Minted
So now we have 3 moments pulled up and can look at the number of minted moments, the price range of the moments and work on an educated guess on the price of the Jokic moment you will receive when completing the challenge.
Nikola Jokic - Dunk - Base Set (Series 2) - Price Range: $74-$100 (Sub 12,000 Serials)
Nikola Jokic - Assist - Seeing Stars (Series 2) - Price Range: $207-$230 (Sub 10,000 Serials)
Nikola Jokic - Assist - Base Set (Series 2) - Price Range: $30-$38 (Sub 12,000 Serials)
So based off of this information I am taking the high range of the all 3 of these moments and then adding roughly 20% of value to the Cool Cats 3 moments since it is not a Base Set moment.
I believe the Jokic moment will be worth about $145.
If you do not already own any of the moments required for this challenge, I do believe you will lose $100-$200 by completing this challenge. However, I still do recommend you complete this challenge. You may be asking, if I am going to lose money why would I want to complete this? There are two reasons why:
The Top Shot team has hinted at requiring challenge completions to be eligible for some future pack drops. This challenge is a lower risk than most and gets a challenge completion under your belt if/when they require a completed challenge for certain pack drops.
The wild card with this specific challenge is the fact that Jokic is in the running for MVP this year. If you plan on selling all challenge moments and the Jokic moment right after completing the challenge I still do believe you will lose money but if you plan on holding the Jokic moment for a few months and he wins MVP you may recoup that loss as I believe the moment will rise in price off the MVP news.
If you already currently own Porzingis, Sabonis, Dragic, Barrett, or Gilgeous-Alexander moments, then I do recommend you complete the challenge as you more than likely will be taking a very small loss or be slightly profitable and give yourself the opportunity to pull a low serial Jokic moment or lock in a challenge completion on your account without risking a large sum of money.
This should give you a good idea on how to proceed with the Cool Cats 3 challenge. If you have any questions or comments please leave them down below and if you enjoyed this post please like, subscribe and share as it helps us create future content!