Should I Complete the LeBron Challenge?

NBA Top Shot

With the LeBron challenge releasing in the near future and knowing that many people are going to want to complete the challenge or have questions about whether or not it will be worth it. I wanted to provide some data that I have worked on and give some insight on what it will cost to own all the moments needed for the challenge and what the LeBron challenge moments could be worth once you obtain it.


There are a few main things we need to look at to make a determination of if it is worth it to buy all the moments needed for the challenge from the marketplace:

  1. How much will I have to spend on all the moments to complete the challenge?

  2. What is the maximum number of people that can complete this challenge?

  3. What is a good estimation for how much the LeBron moment can be worth?

  4. Do I already own any moments that may make it easier and cheaper to complete the challenge?


How much will I have to spend on all the moments to complete the challenge?

So at the time of writing this I pulled current pricing on all the moments needed for the upcoming LeBron challenge as well as what my opinion is on the worth of these cards after the challenge is concluded.

As you can see from the chart data above, as of right now if you bought all the moments at their low ask from the market place you would roughly need to spend $3,850 to obtain all the cards and complete the challenge.


What is the maximum number of people that can complete this challenge?

This is an important question to ask yourself because the less number of people that complete the challenge, the lower number of serials that will be printed which makes the moment more rare and more valuable. To figure this out, we first need to identify what is the highest serial number on a given moment for the challenge? The answer to that is 10,000, this is the max serial number for any of the seeing stars moments. So if every single person completed the LeBron challenge the maximum LeBron moments that could be minted would be 10,000.

However, we know that not every single person will complete the challenge, so now we have to look at past data from previous challenges and try to get an idea of how many people actually will complete it:

Cool Cats 1 Challenge Reward: Luka Doncic - 3,464 completed / 5,000 Max

Cool Cats 2 Challenge Reward: Anthony Davis - 7,098 completed / 10,000 Max

So if we look at the data from the last two challenges we see about 69% of people completed the cool cats 1 challenge and about 71% of people completed the cool cats 2 challenge. If we average the 2 together we get about a 70% completion rate. So now we can apply that to the LeBron challenge, if we think 70% of people will complete the challenge that will give us about 7,000 minted moments for LeBron.


What is a good estimation for how much the LeBron moment will be worth?

This one can get a little tricky as LeBron has some of the most valued moments on the marketplace but we have some great data to back us up on this one. First we can use some of the data from our previous questions we answered in this post.

First, we need to know how much will it cost to complete the challenge? Roughly $3,850

Second, we need to know how many LeBron moments will be minted? Guessing about 7,000

So now that we know the cost and the number of moments minted, we can go to the marketplace and start looking at current LeBron moments to get a better idea of what this one might sell for. There are mainly 2 cards we want to focus on to get our educated guess on this upcoming moments value:

LeBron James - 3 Pointer - Base Set (Series 2) - 15,000 Minted

LeBron James - Dunk - Base Set (Series 2) - 7,500 Minted

So now we have 2 moments pulled up and can look at the serials that are below 7,000 because that is around how many completed challenges we are estimating.

LeBron James - 3 Pointer Price Range: $1,100-$1,500 (Sub 7,000 serials)

LeBron James - Dunk Price Range: $1,450-$1,800 (Sub 7,000 serials)

So based off of this information I am taking the high range of the 3 Point moment and the low point of the Dunk moment and using that as my guess for where the LeBron moment will fall in terms of worth.

I believe the LeBron moment will be worth about $1,450.


Do I already own any moments that may make it easier and cheaper to complete the challenge?

This last piece is for those of you that may have received one or more of the moments via pack drops last week. For this last piece, we have to go up to the chart that was provided at the beginning of this post and see that if you bought all the moments from the marketplace and completed the challenge you still will potentially lose $300+. So therefore the only cards that make this challenge worth it is if you already own:

  • Luka Doncic

  • Steph Curry

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo

The reason it is only recommended if you have one of these three moments is because all three of these moments sell for over $300, so you will more than likely see marginal profits from this challenge if you complete it, it also gives you the opportunity to pull a low serial LeBron from the challenge that could be worth a few thousand more than the low ask.


Recommendation

If you currently do not own any of the moments needed for this challenge, I do not recommend you complete it, as more than likely you will be taking a few hundred dollar loss.

If you currently own Luka, Steph, or Giannis Seeing Stars moment, then I do recommend you complete the challenge as you more than likely will be profitable and give yourself the opportunity to pull a low serial LeBron moment.


This should give you a good idea on how to proceed with the upcoming LeBron challenge. If you have an questions or comments please leave them down below and if you enjoyed this post please like, subscribe and share as it helps us create future content!